mrcharles
baf4088059
ercot-brief.sh: LZ_SOUTH RTM now + 24h peak -> GREEN/WATCH/ELEVATED/CRITICAL risk level + actions (precharge battery, defer class-3 batch, RTW counterfactual flag) + TSV history. Rationale: Base Power stays the retail counterparty; ISO signals are risk intelligence, not an export market. https://projects.knownelement.com/issues/826#note-7
78 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
78 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
# ONCOR real-time arbitrage: sell to Base Power vs serve load
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Status: v1 (2026-09-06, #826). Location: Pflugerville, Travis County, TX —
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ONCOR wires, ERCOT South load zone (`LZ_SOUTH`). Tool:
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`solar-analysis/oncor-arbitrage.sh`.
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## The plan facts that shape everything
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Base Power (verified 2026-09-06):
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- **Import: $0.085/kWh flat** (contract through Oct 2028)
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- **Export: $0.040/kWh flat** solar credit — Base does NOT pay real-time
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wholesale for exports
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So on Base Power, **both sides of your meter are flat rates**. ERCOT's
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real-time market price (RTM, 15-min settlement point prices) does not change
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what you pay or earn today — it is a *counterfactual* and a *planning
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signal*:
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## Decision rules (what the tool emits)
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For each kWh of solar surplus, best action = max of:
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| option | value | when it wins |
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|---|---|---|
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| serve own/deferrable load | $0.085 avoided | almost always (8.5¢ > 4¢) |
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| export to Base | $0.040 flat | only when NO deferrable load exists |
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| export on an RTW plan* | RTM $/kWh | only when RTM > $0.085 (rare spikes) |
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*counterfactual — would require switching export credit to a real-time-
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wholesale retailer plan (e.g. Octopus-style RTW). Texas RTW export averages
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~2¢/kWh with rare spikes >$5/kWh — as a steady diet it LOSES to Base's flat
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4¢; it only wins if you can time exports into spikes (needs battery).
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**Practical rules:**
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1. **Every surplus kWh has a home: load first.** HFNOC batch compute, site-2
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deferrable manufacturing, battery charging — all displace 8.5¢ power.
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This is why the KNELPerf class-3 batch gate keys on solar surplus.
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2. **Only truly surplus-after-load gets exported at 4¢.**
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3. **RTM spike alerts** (`rtw_would_beat_self_consume: true`, RTM >
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$85/MWh): under a future RTW plan you'd earn more exporting than
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self-consuming. Track how often this happens; if frequent and clustered,
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an RTW plan + battery beats Base's flat buyback for exports. Until then,
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staying on Base and self-consuming is strictly better.
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4. **Battery note**: Base's free battery — verify who controls dispatch
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(Base dispatches it for grid services; if they own the dispatch, do not
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count it in household arbitrage). Open question logged on #826.
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## Price sources
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Official API (api.ercot.com public API) and gridstatus.io both require a
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free API key; ercot.com's dashboard JSON is behind an Imperva bot-wall
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(tested 2026-09-06). Tool source precedence: `RTM_OVERRIDE` →
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`GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY` → `ERCOT_API_KEY` → cache file. Key registration is a
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founder action ( NeedsInput on #826).
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## KNELPerf integration
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`oncor-arbitrage.sh` emits `start_deferrable_load` + `rtw_would_beat_self_consume`
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as JSON — the batch launcher consumes this plus the HA solar-surplus sensor
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once the plant is live. Docs: KNELPerf docs/ARCHITECTURE.md §7-8.
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> **Docs live on Discourse — this repo is the executable source of truth.**
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## Day-to-day ISO risk intelligence (ercot-brief.sh)
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Founder ruling 2026-09-06: Base Power must remain the retail provider (no
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direct ERCOT interconnection). So the ISO's signals are RISK INTELLIGENCE,
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not an export market:
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- `ercot-brief.sh` produces a daily risk level from LZ_SOUTH RTM (now +
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24h peak): GREEN (<$150/MWh) / WATCH (>=150) / ELEVATED (>=500) /
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CRITICAL (>=2000, adders/EEA territory).
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- Actions it emits: precharge battery (WATCH+), defer class-3 batch load
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(ELEVATED+), rtw_counterfactual_flag (RTM > $85).
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- On EEA-watch days expect Base to dispatch the fleet battery and expect
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RTW-plan counterfactual spikes — history TSV accumulates for trend stats.
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- Same source chain as the arbitrage tool (GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY /
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ERCOT_API_KEY / override — key registration still pending, see #826/#827).
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