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ERCOT daily risk-intelligence brief (#826)

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ercot-brief.sh: LZ_SOUTH RTM now + 24h peak -> GREEN/WATCH/ELEVATED/CRITICAL
risk level + actions (precharge battery, defer class-3 batch, RTW
counterfactual flag) + TSV history. Rationale: Base Power stays the retail
counterparty; ISO signals are risk intelligence, not an export market.

https://projects.knownelement.com/issues/826#note-7
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mrcharles
2026-09-06 15:02:15 -05:00
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@@ -59,3 +59,19 @@ as JSON — the batch launcher consumes this plus the HA solar-surplus sensor
once the plant is live. Docs: KNELPerf docs/ARCHITECTURE.md §7-8.
> **Docs live on Discourse — this repo is the executable source of truth.**
## Day-to-day ISO risk intelligence (ercot-brief.sh)
Founder ruling 2026-09-06: Base Power must remain the retail provider (no
direct ERCOT interconnection). So the ISO's signals are RISK INTELLIGENCE,
not an export market:
- `ercot-brief.sh` produces a daily risk level from LZ_SOUTH RTM (now +
24h peak): GREEN (<$150/MWh) / WATCH (>=150) / ELEVATED (>=500) /
CRITICAL (>=2000, adders/EEA territory).
- Actions it emits: precharge battery (WATCH+), defer class-3 batch load
(ELEVATED+), rtw_counterfactual_flag (RTM > $85).
- On EEA-watch days expect Base to dispatch the fleet battery and expect
RTW-plan counterfactual spikes — history TSV accumulates for trend stats.
- Same source chain as the arbitrage tool (GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY /
ERCOT_API_KEY / override — key registration still pending, see #826/#827).