Auto-publish 2026-09-06_15:52 (#826)

https://projects.knownelement.com/issues/826

performance/intel/ercot-risk/page.md

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+---
+title: ERCOT Risk Intelligence
+visibility: private
+---
+
+## Day-to-day ISO risk intelligence (ercot-brief.sh)
+
+Founder ruling 2026-09-06: Base Power must remain the retail provider (no
+direct ERCOT interconnection). So the ISO's signals are RISK INTELLIGENCE,
+not an export market:
+
+- `ercot-brief.sh` produces a daily risk level from LZ_SOUTH RTM (now +
+  24h peak): GREEN (<$150/MWh) / WATCH (>=150) / ELEVATED (>=500) /
+  CRITICAL (>=2000, adders/EEA territory).
+- Actions it emits: precharge battery (WATCH+), defer class-3 batch load
+  (ELEVATED+), rtw_counterfactual_flag (RTM > $85).
+- On EEA-watch days expect Base to dispatch the fleet battery and expect
+  RTW-plan counterfactual spikes — history TSV accumulates for trend stats.
+- Same source chain as the arbitrage tool (GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY /
+  ERCOT_API_KEY / override — key registration still pending, see #826/#827).