Auto-publish 2026-09-06_15:52 (#826)

https://projects.knownelement.com/issues/826
2026-09-06 15:52:58 -05:00
parent 3e47443784
commit 0f3fb7e05e
8 changed files with 446 additions and 20 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+---
+title: ERCOT Risk Intelligence
+visibility: private
+---
+
+## Day-to-day ISO risk intelligence (ercot-brief.sh)
+
+Founder ruling 2026-09-06: Base Power must remain the retail provider (no
+direct ERCOT interconnection). So the ISO's signals are RISK INTELLIGENCE,
+not an export market:
+
+- `ercot-brief.sh` produces a daily risk level from LZ_SOUTH RTM (now +
+  24h peak): GREEN (<$150/MWh) / WATCH (>=150) / ELEVATED (>=500) /
+  CRITICAL (>=2000, adders/EEA territory).
+- Actions it emits: precharge battery (WATCH+), defer class-3 batch load
+  (ELEVATED+), rtw_counterfactual_flag (RTM > $85).
+- On EEA-watch days expect Base to dispatch the fleet battery and expect
+  RTW-plan counterfactual spikes — history TSV accumulates for trend stats.
+- Same source chain as the arbitrage tool (GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY /
+  ERCOT_API_KEY / override — key registration still pending, see #826/#827).
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+---
+title: Solar Arbitrage
+visibility: private
+---
+
+# ONCOR real-time arbitrage: sell to Base Power vs serve load
+
+Status: v1 (2026-09-06, #826). Location: Pflugerville, Travis County, TX —
+ONCOR wires, ERCOT South load zone (`LZ_SOUTH`). Tool:
+`solar-analysis/oncor-arbitrage.sh`.
+
+## The plan facts that shape everything
+
+Base Power (verified 2026-09-06):
+- **Import: $[redacted — LLC-private] flat** (contract through Oct 2028)
+- **Export: $[redacted — LLC-private]/kWh flat** solar credit — Base does NOT pay real-time
+  wholesale for exports
+
+So on Base Power, **both sides of your meter are flat rates**. ERCOT's
+real-time market price (RTM, 15-min settlement point prices) does not change
+what you pay or earn today — it is a *counterfactual* and a *planning
+signal*:
+
+## Decision rules (what the tool emits)
+
+For each kWh of solar surplus, best action = max of:
+| option | value | when it wins |
+|---|---|---|
+| serve own/deferrable load | $[redacted — LLC-private] avoided | almost always ([redacted] > [redacted]) |
+| export to Base | $[redacted — LLC-private] flat | only when NO deferrable load exists |
+| export on an RTW plan* | RTM $/kWh | only when RTM > $[redacted — LLC-private] (rare spikes) |
+
+*counterfactual — would require switching export credit to a real-time-
+wholesale retailer plan (e.g. Octopus-style RTW). Texas RTW export averages
+~2¢/kWh with rare spikes >$5/kWh — as a steady diet it LOSES to Base's flat
+[redacted]; it only wins if you can time exports into spikes (needs battery).
+
+**Practical rules:**
+1. **Every surplus kWh has a home: load first.** HFNOC batch compute, site-2
+   deferrable manufacturing, battery charging — all displace [redacted] power.
+   This is why the KNELPerf class-3 batch gate keys on solar surplus.
+2. **Only truly surplus-after-load gets exported at [redacted].**
+3. **RTM spike alerts** (`rtw_would_beat_self_consume: true`, RTM >
+   $85/MWh): under a future RTW plan you'd earn more exporting than
+   self-consuming. Track how often this happens; if frequent and clustered,
+   an RTW plan + battery beats Base's flat buyback for exports. Until then,
+   staying on Base and self-consuming is strictly better.
+4. **Battery note**: Base's free battery — verify who controls dispatch
+   (Base dispatches it for grid services; if they own the dispatch, do not
+   count it in household arbitrage). Open question logged on #826.
+
+## Price sources
+
+Official API (api.ercot.com public API) and gridstatus.io both require a
+free API key; ercot.com's dashboard JSON is behind an Imperva bot-wall
+(tested 2026-09-06). Tool source precedence: `RTM_OVERRIDE` →
+`GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY` → `ERCOT_API_KEY` → cache file. Key registration is a
+founder action ( NeedsInput on #826).
+
+## KNELPerf integration
+
+`oncor-arbitrage.sh` emits `start_deferrable_load` + `rtw_would_beat_self_consume`
+as JSON — the batch launcher consumes this plus the HA solar-surplus sensor
+once the plant is live. Docs: KNELPerf docs/ARCHITECTURE.md §7-8.
+
+> **Docs live on Discourse — this repo is the executable source of truth.**
+