mrcharles
0693739d70
oncor-arbitrage.sh: LZ_SOUTH RTM price (pluggable source) -> best-action verdict (serve load vs export to Base flat 4c vs RTW counterfactual); JSON out for the KNELPerf batch gate. Verified with override prices. https://projects.knownelement.com/issues/826#note-5
89 lines
4.1 KiB
Bash
Executable File
89 lines
4.1 KiB
Bash
Executable File
#!/usr/bin/env bash
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# SITER-Solar / KNELPerf — ONCOR-area real-time solar arbitrage decision.
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#
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# Question it answers, per interval: with X kW of solar surplus and a menu of
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# deferrable loads, is it better to (a) serve your own load, (b) export to
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# Base Power at the flat buyback, or (c) hold for later (battery)?
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#
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# Plan facts (Base Power, verified 2026-09-06):
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# import = $0.085/kWh flat (through Oct 2028)
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# export = $0.040/kWh flat (Base solar credit — NOT real-time wholesale)
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# Therefore: serving your own load ALWAYS beats exporting to Base
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# (8.5c avoided > 4c earned) whenever deferrable load exists. The ERCOT
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# real-time price (RTM, LZ_SOUTH for Pflugerville/Travis, ONCOR wires)
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# matters as a COUNTERFACTUAL: if you switched export to a real-time-
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# wholesale plan, when would exporting have beaten self-consumption?
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#
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# Price sources (first available wins; set via env or /etc/knelerf/ercot.env):
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# ERCOT_API_KEY official api.ercot.com public API (developer.ercot.com)
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# GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY api.gridstatus.io free tier
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# RTM_OVERRIDE manual $/MWh (testing / cache fallback)
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# RTM_CACHE_FILE last-known-good price file, refreshed when possible
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# Output: JSON verdict on stdout (consumed by the KNELPerf batch gate).
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set -euo pipefail
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IMPORT_RATE=${IMPORT_RATE:-0.085} # $/kWh, Base Power flat
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EXPORT_RATE=${EXPORT_RATE:-0.040} # $/kWh, Base Power flat buyback
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SETTLEMENT_POINT=${SETTLEMENT_POINT:-LZ_SOUTH} # Pflugerville/Travis Co.
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CACHE=${RTM_CACHE_FILE:-/tmp/knelerf-rtm-cache.json}
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now=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)
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rtm=""
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fetch_gridstatus() { # needs GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY; returns $/MWh
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[ -n "${GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY:-}" ] || return 1
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local url="https://api.gridstatus.io/v1/datasets/ercot_spp_real_time_15_min?limit=200"
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curl -sf -m 30 -H "x-api-key: $GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY" "$url" \
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| jq -r --arg sp "$SETTLEMENT_POINT" \
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'[.data[] | select(.settlement_point == $sp)][0].price // empty'
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}
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fetch_ercot() { # needs ERCOT_API_KEY (official)
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[ -n "${ERCOT_API_KEY:-}" ] || return 1
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# official public API path; shape verified at registration time
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curl -sf -m 30 -H "Authorization: Bearer $ERCOT_API_KEY" -H "Accept: application/json" \
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"https://api.ercot.com/api/public-api/np6-905-cd?deliveryDateFrom=$(date +%F)&settlementPoint=$SETTLEMENT_POINT&size=1" \
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| jq -r '.data[-1].settlementPointPrice // empty'
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}
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[ -n "${RTM_OVERRIDE:-}" ] && rtm=$RTM_OVERRIDE
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[ -z "$rtm" ] && rtm=$(fetch_gridstatus || true)
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[ -z "$rtm" ] && rtm=$(fetch_ercot || true)
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src=api
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[ -n "${RTM_OVERRIDE:-}" ] && src=override
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if [ -z "$rtm" ] && [ -r "$CACHE" ]; then
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rtm=$(jq -r '.rtm_per_mwh // empty' "$CACHE"); src=cache
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fi
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if [ -z "$rtm" ]; then
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jq -n --arg now "$now" '{ts:$now, ok:false, error:"no price source available (set ERCOT_API_KEY or GRIDSTATUS_API_KEY; see docs/oncor-realtime-arbitrage.md)"}'
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exit 3
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fi
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rtm_kwh=$(awk -v r="$rtm" 'BEGIN{printf "%.5f", r/1000}')
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# Decisions (per kWh of surplus):
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# serve_load_value = IMPORT_RATE (avoided purchase)
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# export_base = EXPORT_RATE (flat)
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# export_rtw_plan = rtm_kwh (counterfactual, real-time plan)
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verdict=$(awk -v i="$IMPORT_RATE" -v e="$EXPORT_RATE" -v r="$rtm_kwh" 'BEGIN{
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best="serve_load"; v=i;
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if (r > v) {best="export_rtw_plan"; v=r}
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if (e > v) {best="export_base"; v=e}
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print best" "v}')
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read -r action value <<< "$verdict"
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# Batch-load gate (KNELPerf class-3): start deferrable compute while
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# surplus exists AND grid price would not make serving load later cheaper.
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jq -n --arg now "$now" --arg sp "$SETTLEMENT_POINT" --arg src "$src" \
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--argjson rtm "$rtm" --argjson rtm_kwh "$rtm_kwh" \
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--argjson import "$IMPORT_RATE" --argjson export "$EXPORT_RATE" \
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--arg action "$action" --argjson value "$value" \
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'{ts:$now, ok:true, settlement_point:$sp, source:$src,
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rtm_per_mwh:$rtm, rtm_per_kwh:$rtm_kwh,
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import_rate: $import, export_rate_base: $export,
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best_action: $action, best_value_per_kwh: $value,
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serve_load_wins: ($import > $export and $import > $rtm_kwh),
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rtw_would_beat_self_consume: ($rtm_kwh > $import),
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start_deferrable_load: ($import > $export)}' | tee /tmp/oncor-latest.json
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cp /tmp/oncor-latest.json "$CACHE" 2>/dev/null || true
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